Craigs researcher says NZ in good shape

'Market correction likely, so play safe.'

'Market correction likely, so play safe.'

Mark Lister. Youtube picture

TIMES have been good, but now is the time for investors to be conservative in their financial decisions, said Craigs Investment Partners head of research, Mark Lister, who was in Gisborne to speak to clients.

“Everyone has had a good run,’’ Mr Lister said.

The share market had been continuously rising — 10 percent in the first six months of this year alone — and house prices had risen for years.

“It won’t continue for ever. At some point there has to be a correction. There will be a recession at some stage. Don’t be under any illusion, markets are risky, they always are.”

Mr Lister said there were no short-term indications pointing to a repeat of the 2007 global financial crash.

“But we are telling our clients to be conservative and play safe.”

He said New Zealand was in very good shape. Tourist numbers were high, unemployment low and, unlike the Australian Government, the New Zealand Government had a budget surplus.

The dairy sector was ‘‘back in a big way” with Fonterra’s milk payout of $6 comparing favourably to the payout of $3 or $4 in recent years.

The Government had options of spending surpluses on reducing debt, lowering taxes or increasing spending. There were no such options in Australia, which had a “massive budget debt”.

The country was struggling after the mining boom. He said Australia had housing problems like New Zealand, but Australia was not used to hard times.

The New Zealand Government’s biggest difficulty was housing. It would be good if house prices fell 40 percent to more sensible levels, but unemployment would be 10 percent, he said.

“Your house would be cheap but you wouldn’t have a job. There were no easy answers. I don’t envy politicians.”

Auckland house prices were now falling, but it was too early to tell if it was a short-term blip or the start of something more sustainable.

He was not worried about Gisborne house prices.

“Gisborne prices are not overheated as in Auckland.”

He said New Zealand interest rates would start to rise.

“People should not be under any illusions. The days of rock-bottom interest rates are behind us. Borrowers will need to think carefully over the years to come.”

He said the international economy was “in solid shape and ticking over’’.

Despite the political controversies of President Trump, the US economy was performing well and as a result interest rates were increasing.

The president’s views on tariffs and trade were "something to watch”.

But realistic people knew from the Trump-Clinton presidency race that the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) was “a bit of a stretch,” he said.

Those TPPA countries left were trying to cobble an agreement together. New Zealand could still make gains such as getting access to the Japanese beef market.

“TPPA was a little bit of a disappointment, but was not a show-stopper.”

Mr Lister said there was only slight instability in a New Zealand election year, as there was little difference between National and Labour.

Germany would go to the polls on the same weekend as New Zealand. Chancellor Angela Merkel was already in a coalition with the Social Democrats and was likely to remain in a coalition “of some shape or other”.

A French presidential victory for National Front leader Marine Le Penn would have had a greater impact than Brexit.

There was greater uncertainty with the Italian elections, which must be held by mid-2018.

Any vote to leave the Euro by Germany, France, Spain or Italy could end European Monetary Union, he said.

TIMES have been good, but now is the time for investors to be conservative in their financial decisions, said Craigs Investment Partners head of research, Mark Lister, who was in Gisborne to speak to clients.

“Everyone has had a good run,’’ Mr Lister said.

The share market had been continuously rising — 10 percent in the first six months of this year alone — and house prices had risen for years.

“It won’t continue for ever. At some point there has to be a correction. There will be a recession at some stage. Don’t be under any illusion, markets are risky, they always are.”

Mr Lister said there were no short-term indications pointing to a repeat of the 2007 global financial crash.

“But we are telling our clients to be conservative and play safe.”

He said New Zealand was in very good shape. Tourist numbers were high, unemployment low and, unlike the Australian Government, the New Zealand Government had a budget surplus.

The dairy sector was ‘‘back in a big way” with Fonterra’s milk payout of $6 comparing favourably to the payout of $3 or $4 in recent years.

The Government had options of spending surpluses on reducing debt, lowering taxes or increasing spending. There were no such options in Australia, which had a “massive budget debt”.

The country was struggling after the mining boom. He said Australia had housing problems like New Zealand, but Australia was not used to hard times.

The New Zealand Government’s biggest difficulty was housing. It would be good if house prices fell 40 percent to more sensible levels, but unemployment would be 10 percent, he said.

“Your house would be cheap but you wouldn’t have a job. There were no easy answers. I don’t envy politicians.”

Auckland house prices were now falling, but it was too early to tell if it was a short-term blip or the start of something more sustainable.

He was not worried about Gisborne house prices.

“Gisborne prices are not overheated as in Auckland.”

He said New Zealand interest rates would start to rise.

“People should not be under any illusions. The days of rock-bottom interest rates are behind us. Borrowers will need to think carefully over the years to come.”

He said the international economy was “in solid shape and ticking over’’.

Despite the political controversies of President Trump, the US economy was performing well and as a result interest rates were increasing.

The president’s views on tariffs and trade were "something to watch”.

But realistic people knew from the Trump-Clinton presidency race that the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) was “a bit of a stretch,” he said.

Those TPPA countries left were trying to cobble an agreement together. New Zealand could still make gains such as getting access to the Japanese beef market.

“TPPA was a little bit of a disappointment, but was not a show-stopper.”

Mr Lister said there was only slight instability in a New Zealand election year, as there was little difference between National and Labour.

Germany would go to the polls on the same weekend as New Zealand. Chancellor Angela Merkel was already in a coalition with the Social Democrats and was likely to remain in a coalition “of some shape or other”.

A French presidential victory for National Front leader Marine Le Penn would have had a greater impact than Brexit.

There was greater uncertainty with the Italian elections, which must be held by mid-2018.

Any vote to leave the Euro by Germany, France, Spain or Italy could end European Monetary Union, he said.

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Mary-Ann de Kort - 1 month ago
If we are doing so well, why is there so much poverty? Working people can't afford rent or to pay the bills.
It is possible credit card spending has increased as people don't earn enough and the total NZ debt, including about $100 billion owed by our government, sits at about half a trillion dollars.
We currently have 300,000 kids living below the poverty line, beggars on our streets, kids living with their parents in cars, several families living in a house, others living in garages, tents and sheds.
Apart from that, hospitals are short-staffed, people are unable to visit doctors and there have been deaths due to misdiagnoses due to stressed medical practitioners.
People are getting sick from drinking water from their taps and cities can't afford to fix sewerage and stormwater systems.
We haven't trained enough people to fill specialist and tradie positions so need to import labour, while many youth are unemployed and untrained.
There has been so much neglect and under-investment in people and capital works that we have fallen near the bottom of many social statistics. Once upon a time we were near the top.
Maybe some are doing well but too many are not.

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