Outlook up to Christmas

Above average temperatures, normal rainfall

Above average temperatures, normal rainfall

A return to normal rainfall and continuing above-average temperatures for the Gisborne region are in the climate outlook for the run up to Christmas.

Climate agencies in New Zealand and overseas agree on the El Nino-La Nina outlook, and say there is little chance of an El Nino developing in the period to the end of next March.

Niwa, MetService and the major global climate agencies now say there is a 50-50 chance of neutral or weak La Nina conditions over that period.

The regional outlook for this district to the end of December, and for the whole country, is for it to be warmer than usual.

Niwa says there is a 60 percent chance of temperatures being above average, a 45 percent chance of rainfall being near average and also a 45 percent chance of soil moisture being near average.

They and MetService say high pressure systems make a reappearance on the weather maps, with the possibility of more north-easterly flows bringing subtropical moisture towards New Zealand.

They say coastal waters remain generally warmer than average all around the country and the models indicate warmer water around New Zealand is likely to persist over the October to December period.

As well as this encouraging outlook for farmers and croppers, MetService and Niwa have issued a favourable cyclone outlook for the season.

Despite tropical cyclone activity expected to be higher than normal this season, the risk for New Zealand is still seen as normal or slightly above normal. That is, on average, one cyclone may affect the country each season.

A return to normal rainfall and continuing above-average temperatures for the Gisborne region are in the climate outlook for the run up to Christmas.

Climate agencies in New Zealand and overseas agree on the El Nino-La Nina outlook, and say there is little chance of an El Nino developing in the period to the end of next March.

Niwa, MetService and the major global climate agencies now say there is a 50-50 chance of neutral or weak La Nina conditions over that period.

The regional outlook for this district to the end of December, and for the whole country, is for it to be warmer than usual.

Niwa says there is a 60 percent chance of temperatures being above average, a 45 percent chance of rainfall being near average and also a 45 percent chance of soil moisture being near average.

They and MetService say high pressure systems make a reappearance on the weather maps, with the possibility of more north-easterly flows bringing subtropical moisture towards New Zealand.

They say coastal waters remain generally warmer than average all around the country and the models indicate warmer water around New Zealand is likely to persist over the October to December period.

As well as this encouraging outlook for farmers and croppers, MetService and Niwa have issued a favourable cyclone outlook for the season.

Despite tropical cyclone activity expected to be higher than normal this season, the risk for New Zealand is still seen as normal or slightly above normal. That is, on average, one cyclone may affect the country each season.

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