Soggy September affects work in the fields

The region’s agricultural sector is looking for an end to the bursts of rain which have kept soils around the district saturated and unable to absorb any more.

The daily climate charts produced by the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) show the district from Tolaga Bay to southern Hawke’s Bay has had between twice and four times as much rain as normal for this time in September.

The top of East Cape has had up to 140 percent of normal rainfall, and is rated as severely or extremely wet.

The outlook is for showers continuing to Tuesday.

Despite the coast from southern Hawke’s Bay to East Cape receiving more sunshine than normal, the lack of warm drying winds has kept evapotranspiration at nil and soil moisture levels are at or over capacity, with orchardists, croppers and pastoralists finding it difficult to get on the land to progress the season’s work.

East Cape to Te Puia has had up to 125 percent or more of normal sunshine, Te Puia to the Whareratas from 115 to 125 percent more, and Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay up to 115 percent more.

Cooler temperatures have been further hindering growth and drainage, with the district half a degree colder than usual for the time of year.

This is despite Gisborne recording its second warmest September day since 1905 — a high of 25.1 on the 13th, the warmest day since April 8 when the mercury reached 25.3.

Farmers in the Wairoa area have particularly suffered, with large lamb losses from the recent wet and cold.

Meanwhile, although the latest World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report says an El Nino is on its way, it is not expected to be as intense as the one in 2015-16.

WMO says there is a 70 percent chance of a recurrence of El Nino before the end of this year.

“WMO does not expect the coming El Nino to be as powerful as the 2015-2016 event but it will still have considerable impacts,” said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas.

However, according to the WMO, climate change is influencing the traditional dynamics of these weather events.

For the first time, the WMO has coupled the El Nino update with a global seasonal climate outlook for the September-November period.

The forecast says above-normal surface temperatures are forecast in nearly all of the Asia-Pacific region, and in Europe, North America, Africa and much of coastal South America.

“2018’s weak La Nina’s cooling effect was not enough to reduce the overall global warming trend, which means that this year is on track to be one of the warmest on record,” said Taalas.

For the Gisborne-East Coast region of the North Island, an El Nino is associated with stronger westerly winds and drier conditions.

So far this month the weather has been variable with no real sign yet of equinoctial north-westerlies setting in.

To date, there have been 12 days of cold southerly winds and only 8 days of warm north-westers.

The region’s agricultural sector is looking for an end to the bursts of rain which have kept soils around the district saturated and unable to absorb any more.

The daily climate charts produced by the National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) show the district from Tolaga Bay to southern Hawke’s Bay has had between twice and four times as much rain as normal for this time in September.

The top of East Cape has had up to 140 percent of normal rainfall, and is rated as severely or extremely wet.

The outlook is for showers continuing to Tuesday.

Despite the coast from southern Hawke’s Bay to East Cape receiving more sunshine than normal, the lack of warm drying winds has kept evapotranspiration at nil and soil moisture levels are at or over capacity, with orchardists, croppers and pastoralists finding it difficult to get on the land to progress the season’s work.

East Cape to Te Puia has had up to 125 percent or more of normal sunshine, Te Puia to the Whareratas from 115 to 125 percent more, and Wairoa and Hawke’s Bay up to 115 percent more.

Cooler temperatures have been further hindering growth and drainage, with the district half a degree colder than usual for the time of year.

This is despite Gisborne recording its second warmest September day since 1905 — a high of 25.1 on the 13th, the warmest day since April 8 when the mercury reached 25.3.

Farmers in the Wairoa area have particularly suffered, with large lamb losses from the recent wet and cold.

Meanwhile, although the latest World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report says an El Nino is on its way, it is not expected to be as intense as the one in 2015-16.

WMO says there is a 70 percent chance of a recurrence of El Nino before the end of this year.

“WMO does not expect the coming El Nino to be as powerful as the 2015-2016 event but it will still have considerable impacts,” said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas.

However, according to the WMO, climate change is influencing the traditional dynamics of these weather events.

For the first time, the WMO has coupled the El Nino update with a global seasonal climate outlook for the September-November period.

The forecast says above-normal surface temperatures are forecast in nearly all of the Asia-Pacific region, and in Europe, North America, Africa and much of coastal South America.

“2018’s weak La Nina’s cooling effect was not enough to reduce the overall global warming trend, which means that this year is on track to be one of the warmest on record,” said Taalas.

For the Gisborne-East Coast region of the North Island, an El Nino is associated with stronger westerly winds and drier conditions.

So far this month the weather has been variable with no real sign yet of equinoctial north-westerlies setting in.

To date, there have been 12 days of cold southerly winds and only 8 days of warm north-westers.

Your email address will not be published. Comments will display after being approved by a staff member. Comments may be edited for clarity.

Poll

  • Voting please wait...
    Your vote has been cast. Reloading page...
    Do you think Simon Bridges will still be leader of the National Party at the next election?