Newshub's Paddy Gower called East Coast for National's Dana Kirkpatrick at 7.20pm on election night but Ms Kirkpatrick and Labour's Tāmati Coffey were still reserving judgement two hours later.

From 8pm to just after 9pm, Ms Kirkpatrick had a lead ranging from 1800 to 2000 votes.

But she said she wanted to wait for more votes to come in before claiming victory.

The cost of living, cyclone recovery, health and education were key issues. And the electorate wanted change.

National candidates who were certain of victory would travel to Wellington on Monday.

The man likely to be the Prime Minister, Christopher Luxon had said the new caucus would be busy to Christmas, she said.

Mr Coffey was still in his normal positive mood despite the early figures.

He said the Labour Government had handled covid well in Tairāwhiti, and the economy was still good by international standards.

He said urban booths came in later and would boost Labour's vote.

Looking at the vote across the country, it was possible voters wanted change for change's sake.

He had stepped in late to replace Kiri Allan and he was happy with his campaign effort. He had announced his retirement as a list MP earlier in the year before stepping in for Ms Allan.

If he lost East Coast Coast he was uncertain of his future.

At 11.15pm with 98 of 120 booths counted, Ms Kirkpatrick led her major opponent by 3225 votes, 13,949 to 10,724.

In preliminary results released on Sunday, prior to the counting of special votes, Dana Kirkpatrick has 14,971 votes - a margin of 3138 over Tāmati Coffey on 11,833 votes. Craig Sinclair of NZ First is third on 2195 votes, Michael Howe of Act is fourth with 1598 votes and Jordan Walker of the Green Party is fifth with 1353 votes.

For Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, Labour's Cushla Tangaere-Manuel has 10,677 votes, 2788 more than former Labour cabinet minister Meka Whaitiri - who stood for Te Pāti Māori - on 7889 votes.