Opinion
It’s time to calm the horses on CO₂-driven climate change.
New research published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment indicates no statistically significant warming surge since the 1970s despite rising atmospheric CO₂ levels.
Researchers used changepoint models—statistical tools that detect shifts in data trends over time—on four global mean surface temperature records from 1850 to 2023.
They found a 53% increase in the warming rate, from 0.019 °C per year (1970–2012) to 0.029 °C per year (2013–2023), but this change was not statistically significant.
For it to be a true surge, the warming rate would need to reach 0.039 °C per year, or more than double the previous rate.
The study suggests that short-term temperature fluctuations may result from data “noise” or natural cycles like El Niño and La Niña, which can obscure or be mistaken for long-term climate shifts. As such, in my view, increasing CO₂ can’t be honestly claimed to be proven as a factor driving a dangerous increase in temperatures.
Iain Boyle
*(The study referenced in this letter was published in Communications Earth & Environment on October 14, 2024, under the title A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet)
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