Opinion
It’s time to calm the horses on CO₂-driven climate change.
New research published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment indicates no statistically significant warming surge since the 1970s despite rising atmospheric CO₂ levels.
Researchers used changepoint models—statistical tools that detect shifts in data trends over time—on four global mean surface temperature records from 1850 to 2023.
They found a 53% increase in the warming rate, from 0.019 °C per year (1970–2012) to 0.029 °C per year (2013–2023), but this change was not statistically significant.
For it to be a true surge, the warming rate would need to reach 0.039 °C per year, or more than double the previous rate.
The study suggests that short-term temperature fluctuations may result from data “noise” or natural cycles like El Niño and La Niña, which can obscure or be mistaken for long-term climate shifts. As such, in my view, increasing CO₂ can’t be honestly claimed to be proven as a factor driving a dangerous increase in temperatures.
Iain Boyle
*(The study referenced in this letter was published in Communications Earth & Environment on October 14, 2024, under the title A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet)
The Gisborne Herald welcomes letters from readers. Please note the following:
-
Letters should not exceed 350 words.
-
They should be opinion based on facts or current events.
-
If possible, please email.
-
No noms-de-plume.
-
Letters will be published with names and suburb/city.
-
Please include full name, address and contact details for our records only.
-
Local letter writers are given preference.
-
Rejected letters are not normally acknowledged.
-
Letters may be edited, abridged, or rejected at the Editor’s discretion.
-
The Editor’s decision on publication is final. No correspondence will be entered into.
Email editor@gisborneherald.co.nz.
